Treasury Yields on the Rise

Published July 4, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher early in the week as investors reacted to the latest job creation numbers for the private sector. Yields continued to rise towards the end of the week after U.S. payrolls increased higher than expected, easing concerns about potential vulnerability in the labor market.

On Wednesday, ADP reported that private sector job creation shrunk in June, indicating a continuingly weakening labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private sector hiring declined by 33,000 in June, below the 29,000 jobs added in May and far below Wall Street’s expectations of an increase of 100,000. This marked the first decrease of job creation counted by ADP since March 2023.  

"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month," said chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson. "Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth."

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 30 at 4.29% and traded as high as 4.31% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.83% and traded as high as 4.85% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, increased 147,000 for June, coming in higher than the 110,000 economists expected and above the revised 144,000 for May. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, marking the lowest level since February and below economists’ estimates of 4.3%.  

“The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut,” said head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, Jeff Schulze. “Today’s good news should be treated as such by the markets, with equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/30 at 4.35%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.87%.